介绍： 1 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
来自扑克冠军做决定的三个策略

speaker:Liv Boeree，利夫·博里，职业扑克玩家。

00:00:
So,I’m a professional poker player,and today I want to talk about three things that the game taught me around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.Now the fir...

介绍： 1 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
来自扑克冠军做决定的三个策略

speaker:Liv Boeree，利夫·博里，职业扑克玩家。

00:00:
So,I’m a professional poker player,and today I want to talk about three things that the game taught me around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.Now the first of these things is about luck.Now,like poker,life is also a game of skill and luck,and when it comes to the biggest things we care about--health,wealth and relationships--these outcomes don’t only depend on the quality of our decision-making,but also the roll of life’s dice.For example,we can be perfectly health-conscious and still get unlucky with something like cancer.Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,and this kinf of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know how good our strategies are,sometimes,especially when we’re experiencing a lot of success.For example,back in 2010,I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.And because I’d only been playing full-time for about a year.When I won,I assumed I must be rather brilliant.In fact,I thought I was so brilliant that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,but also got more risky,started playing in the biggest tournaments I could against the very best in the world.
我是一名专业扑克玩家，今天，我想谈一谈牌局教给我的可以应用于日常决策的三个决策。第一个就是运气。生活就像扑克游戏，需要技巧和运气，当面对我们最关心的事情--健康，财富，和人际关系--其结果都不只跟我们做决定的质量有关，也取决于生活中的运气。例如，我们在非常注重健康的情况下也仍然会不幸患上癌症。或者一天抽20只烟，也能同样活到99，这种模糊性有时候让我们很难判断我们的策略究竟有多好，尤其在经历多次成功之后。比如说，在2010年时，我赢得了一场真正意义上的扑克竞标赛--欧洲扑克巡回赛。再加上我当时仅仅全职玩了一年的扑克，获胜之后，我觉得我一定非常聪明。事实上，我觉得自己已经如此聪明了，所以不仅懒得去钻研游戏，还开始变得喜欢冒险，开始参加我能参加的最大比赛，与最强大的对手对决。

01:30:
And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty to something kind of sad,with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,until I finally realized that I was overestimate my skill level and got my act together.And this kind of reminds me of what we’ve been seeing in the cryptocurrency space,at least in 2017 where the only thing that’s been going up faster than the markests themselves is the number of “senior investment specialists” who have been appearing out of nowhere.Now I’m not saying it’s not possible to have a strategic edge,but at the same time,it’s very easy to feel like a genius when you’re in a market that’s going up so fast that even the worst strategies are making a profit.So when we’re experiencing success,it’s important to take a moment to really ask ourselves how much of it is truly down to us,because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we’re winning.
然后我的利润表从让人赏心悦目变得有些让人惨不忍睹，并且这种令人担忧的下行趋势持续了很久时间，并且这种令人担忧的下行趋势持续了很长的时间，直到我最终意识到，我高估了自己的水平，并开始重振旗鼓。这让我回想起在加密货币领域的见闻，至少在2017年，唯一比市场上升还快的就是不知道从哪里冒出来的“高级投资专家”的数量。我不是在说不可能有战略优势，但与此同时，当你在一个快速上升的市场中，即便操着最烂的策略也能赚钱时，是非常容易感觉自己天赋异禀的。所以，当我们在经历成功时，应该花点时间扪心自问，这次成功中有多少因素真正取决于我们的能力。因为当我们获胜时，我们的自负感会倾向于淡化运气成分。

02:20:
Now,a second thing poker taught me is the importance of quantifying my thinking.When you’re playing,you can’t just get away with going,”Eh,they’re probably bluffing.”That’s just going to lose you a bunch money,because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.So now,whenever I catch myself thinking vaguely about something really important,like,”It’s unlikely I’ll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk”,I now try to estimate it numerically.Trust me,it helps a lot with the planning process.And the thing is,almost anything that could possibly happen here today,or at any point in the future,can also be expressed as a probability,too.So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.So if someone asks me,”Hey,Liv,do you think you’re going to come along to that thing tonight?”instead of just saying to them,”Yeah,probably,”I actually give them my best estimate--say,60 percent.Because--I know that sounds a little odd--but the thing is,I ran a poll on Twitter of what people understand the world”probably”to mean,and this was the spread of answers.Enormous!So apparently,it’s absolutely useless at actually conveying any real information.So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,like”probably”or”sometimes,”try,instead,using numbers,because when we speak in numbers,we know what lands in the other person’s brain.
第二件扑克教给我的事是量化自己想法的重要性。当你在棋牌局上时，不可能就这样想着，“呃，他们可能是在虚张声势。”因为扑克是个关于概率和精确性的游戏，所以你必须训练自己用数字思考。所以现在，每当我发现自己在粗略地思考一些非常重要的事情时，比如“我大概不会在TED演讲时忘记自己想要讲什么，”我现在尝试用数字估算它。相信我，这真的对计划过程有很大的帮助。事实上，什么事情都有可能在今天或在未来某个时候发生，也可以被表达为概率。我也会尝试把数据用到对话中。如果有人问我，“嘿，丽芙，你会参加今晚的晚会吗？”与其用“可能吧”这样的方式回复他们，我会给他们我最好的估计值--比如，六成.虽然--我知道这听着奇怪--但关键在于我在推特上对人们如何理解“可能吧”这句话做了个调研，这是答案的分布情况。十分广泛。很明显，在传达重要的信息时，这个表达是完全没用的。所以如果你们抓到自己在用像“大概”或者“有时候”的模糊词语时，尝试让自己用数字，因为我们用数字说话时，我们知道对方会如何理解。