介绍： How the military fights climate change
军队如何应对气候变化

speaker： David Titley，戴维·蒂利，科学家、退役海军军官。

00:00:
So I’d like to tell you a story about climate and change,but it’s really a story about people and not polar bears.so this is our house that we lived in the midships.I was the chief ...

介绍： How the military fights climate change
军队如何应对气候变化

speaker： David Titley，戴维·蒂利，科学家、退役海军军官。

00:00:
So I’d like to tell you a story about climate and change,but it’s really a story about people and not polar bears.so this is our house that we lived in the midships.I was the chief operating officer for the Navy’s weather and ocean service.it happened to be down at a place called Stennis Space Center right on the Gulf Coast,so we lived in a little town called Wave land,Mississippi,nice modest house,and as you can see,it’s up against a storm surge.now,if you ever wonder what a 30-foot or nine-meter storm surge does coming up your street.let me show you.same house.that’s me,kind of wondering what’s next.but when we say we lost our house--this is,like,right after Katrina--so the house is either all the way up there in the railway tracks,or it’s somewhere down there in the Gulf of Mexico,to this day,we really,we lost our house.we don’t know where it is.you know,it’s gone.so I don’t show this for pity,because in many ways,we were the luckiest people on the Gulf Coast.
我想讲一个关于气候和变化的故事，但这个故事实际上跟人有关，而不是北极熊。这是我2005年左右住的房子。当时我在海军天气和海洋局 当首席运营官。房子位于斯坦尼斯航天中心，墨西哥湾沿岸，我们住在密西西比州一个叫维乌兰德的小镇，很漂亮很现代的房子，如您所见，它经历了风暴潮。不知道您想过没有，30英尺，或者说9米高的风暴潮 袭击您住的街区会是什么样子，我们来看一看。就是那栋房子。那是我，在想接下来应该怎么办。我们失去了自己的房子，这是在卡特里娜飓风过境之后，我们的房子要么在这里的铁路线上，要么就是在墨西哥湾里的某个地方，直到今天，我只知道房子没了，天知道它在哪里。没了就是没了。我说这个不是为了寻求同情，因为从很多方面来说，我们已经是墨西哥湾沿岸最幸运的人了。

01:20：
one of the things is,we had insurance,and kind of that idea of insurance is probably pretty important there.but does this scale up,you know,what happened here?and I think it kind of does,because as you’ve heard,that as the sea levels come up,it takes weaker and weaker storms to do something like this.so let’s just step back for a second and kind of look at this.and,you know,climate’s really complicated,a lot of moving parts in this.but I kind of put it about it’s all about the water.see,see those three blue dots there down on the lower part?the one you can easily see that’s all the water in the world.those two smaller dots,those are the fresh water.and it turns out that as the climate changes,the distribution of that water is changing very fundamentally.so now we have too much,too little,wrong place,wrong time.
因为很重要的一点，我们有保险，保险对于我们那儿而言尤为重要。那么这种事情会不会越来越严重呢？我认为会，因为大家都知道，随着海平面上升，越来越小的风暴都可以造成这样大的伤害。让我们先停一下，来看看这个。我们都知道，气候非常复杂，有很多变化因素在里面，但简单来看，全部都跟水有关。大家看到下面这3个蓝色的点了吗？最大的那个，是全世界所有的水。比较小的那2个，是淡水。其实随着气候的变化，水的比例会发生根本性的变化。要么多了，要么少了， 要么地点不对，要么时间不对。

02:13:
it’s salty where it should be fresh;it’s liquid where it should be frozen;it’s wet where it should be dry;and in fact,the very chemistry of the ocean itself is changing.and what that does from a security or a military part is it does three things:it changes the very operating environment that we’re working in,it threatens bases.then it has prostrate risks,which could sounds kind of fancy and I’ll explain what I mean by that in a second.so let’s go to just a couple examples here.and we’ll start off with what we all know is of course a political and humanitarian catastrophe that is Syria.and it turns out that climate was one of the causes in a long chain of events.it actually started back in the 1970s.when Assad took control over Syria,he decided he wanted to be self-sufficient in things like wheat and barley.
本该是淡水的，变成了咸水，本该是冻结的，融化了，本该干燥的地方变潮湿了，实际上，海洋本身的 化学成分也在变化。那么从安全和军事角度来说，气候变化带来了3件事：一是改变了我们行动的环境，威胁我们的基地，同时还有地缘战略风险，这个听起来有点高深，我稍后会详细解释。下面举几个例子。首先是大家众所周知的，发生在叙利亚的人道主义灾难 和政治灾难。原来，气候也是起因之一，是链条中的一环。事情开始于20世纪70年代。当时阿萨德控制了叙利亚，他想要实现粮食自给自足。

03:10:
now,you would like to think that there was somebody in Assad’s office that said,”hey boss,you know,we’re in the eastern Mediterranean,kind Of dry here,maybe not the best idea.”but I think what happened was,”boss,you are a smart,powerful and handsome man.we’ll get right on it.”and they did.so by the 9th,believe it or not,they were actually self-sufficient in food,but they did it at a great cost.they did it at a cost of their aquifers,they did it at a coast of their surface water.and of course,there are many nonliterary issues that also contributed to Syria.there was the Iraq War,and as you can see by that lower blue line there,over a million refugees come into the cities.and then about a decade ago,there’s this tremendous heat wave and drought--fingerprints all over that show,yes,this is in fact related to the changing climate--has put another three quarters of a million farmers into those same cities.
好的，你也许会想，会有人在阿萨德的办公室说， “老板，我们位于地中海东岸，气候有点干燥，可能有点难办。” 但我觉得实际情况可能是， “老板，您真是英明神武。 我们立刻去办。” 他们说到做到。不管你信不信，在90年代，他们真的做到了粮食自给自足，但付出的代价也很大。代价就是他们的地下水，以及地表水。当然，还有很多非气候的因素 造成了目前叙利亚的局面。比如伊拉克战争，请大家看底下这条蓝色的线，超过100万难民涌入城市。另外，差不多十年前，发生了严重的热浪和干旱，所有的证据都表明，没错，这的确跟气候变化有关 而且这又将另外75万农民赶入了之前那些城市。

04:07:
why?because they had nothing.they had dust.they had dirt.they had nothing.so now they’re in the cities,the Iraqis are in the cities,it’s Assad,it’s not like he’s taking care of his people,and all of a sudden we have just this issue here of massive instability and a breeding ground for extremism.and this is why in the security community we call climate change a risk to instability.it accelerates instability here.in plain English,it makes bad places worse.so let’s go to another place here,now we’re going to g 2,000 kilometers or about 1,200 miles,north of Oslo,only 600 miles from the Pole,and this is arguably the most strategic island you’ve never heard of.it’s a place called Svalbard.it sits astride the sea lanes that the Russian Northern Fleet needs to get out and go into warmer waters.it is also,by virtue of its geography,a place you can control every single polar orbiting satellite on every orbit.it is the strategic high ground of space.
为什么？因为他们已经一无所有。除了沙尘和荒漠，一无所有。他们身处城市之中 伊拉克人也在城市之中，那可是阿萨德，他可不关照他的子民，仿佛一夜之间出现了很多大问题，比如不稳定 比如滋生极端主义。正因为此，我们搞安全的会把气候变化称为造成不稳定的风险。它会加速不稳定。 直白点说，会让不好的地方变得更糟。 下面我们去另一个地方看一下。奥斯陆北边2000公里，或者说1200英里的地方，那儿离北极点只有600英里，那个地方可以说是最具有战略意义的岛屿，而你可能从未听说过。它叫斯瓦尔巴。 它横跨数条海洋航道，俄罗斯的北方舰队要进入 温暖海域，必须经过这里。它还有一个地理上的优势，在这里，你可以控制到 每一颗极地轨道卫星无论它的轨道高度如何。 这里是太空的战略制高点。

05:14:
climate change has greatly reduced the sea ice around here,greatly increasing human activity,and it’s becoming a flash-point,and in fact the NATO Parliamentary Assembly is going to meet here on Svalbard next month.the Russians are very very unhappy about that.so if you want to find a flash-point in the Arctic,look at Svalbard there.now,in the military,we have known for decades,if not centuries,that the time to prepare,whether it’s for a hurricane,a typhoon or strategic changes,is before they hit you,and Admiral Nimitz was right there.that is the time to prepare.fortunately,our Secretary of Defense,Secretary Mantis he understands that as well,and what he understands is that climate is a risk.he has said so in his written responses to Congress,and he says,”as Secretary of Defense,it’s my job to manage such risks.”it’s not only the US military that understands this.many of our friends and allies i other navies and other militarily have very clear-eyed views about the climate risk.
气候变化极大减少了那里的海冰，并大大加强了人类活动，这里成为了一个导火线，实际上，北约的议会大会，将会于下月在斯瓦尔巴召开。俄罗斯对此非常不满。如果你想在北极找一个导火线， 非斯瓦尔巴莫属。在军事领域，在早几十年甚至几个世纪前，我们就已经明白，要防患于未然， 预防飓风、台风或者战略变化，做好预案，尼米兹上将明白这一点。他已经在准备应对。幸运的是，我们的国防部长，马蒂斯部长，他也明白这一点，他知道气候是风险... ...

06:18:
and in fact,in 2014,I was honored to speak for a half-a-day seminar at the International Manpower Symposium to 70 heads of navies about this issue.so Winston Churchill is alleged to have said,I’m not sure if he said anything,but he’s alleged to have said that Americans can always be counted upon to do the right thing after exhausting every other possibility.so I would argue we’re still in the process of exhausting every other possibility,but I do think we will prevail.but I need your help.this is my ask.I ask not that you take your recycling out on Wednesday,but that you engage with every business leader,every technology leader,every government leader,and ask them,”Ma’am,sir,what are you doing to stabilize the climate?”

07:07:
it’s just that simple.because when enough people care enough,the politicians,most of whom won’t lead on this issue--but they will be led--that will change this.because I can tell you the ice doesn’t care.the ice doesn’t care who’s in the White House.it doesn’t care which party controls your congress.it doesn’t care which party controls your Parliament.it just melts.

Thank you.very much.