介绍： Italy’s referendum: Just trust me
But critics accuse him of trying to become “master of Italy”

Voting with his Fiat
A TREMOR of magnitude 4.5 shook central Italy on November 29th, rattling areas that had been devastated by heavier quakes weeks earlier. It was a reminder that there is much to fear in the...

介绍： Italy’s referendum: Just trust me
But critics accuse him of trying to become “master of Italy”

Voting with his Fiat
A TREMOR of magnitude 4.5 shook central Italy on November 29th, rattling areas that had been devastated by heavier quakes weeks earlier. It was a reminder that there is much to fear in the bel paese: seismic shocks, organised crime and, most urgently, the outcome of a constitutional referendum on December 4th.

The referendum will endorse or reject changes that include drastically reducing the powers of the Senate. And future Italian governments would have a much firmer grip on parliament since a new electoral law engineers for the leading party—even one that secures only a modest plurality—an assured majority in the lower house (the Chamber of Deputies). The prime minister, Matteo Renzi, argues that this streamlined legislature is essential in order to pass the structural reforms that Italy’s sluggish economy needs.

Many fear the changes remove needed checks and balances, granting the government too much power. They would make it easier for the prime minister to determine who becomes president, and thus influence who sits in the constitutional court. (Most of its judges are chosen by either the president or parliament.) In the days before the vote, campaigners for the No side concentrated on attacking Mr Renzi for demanding excessive authority. The leader of the centre-right Forza Italia party, Silvio Berlusconi, who initially backed the reform, warned it would make the prime minister “master of Italy and the Italians”. A subtler concern voiced by some constitutional lawyers was that, while Mr Renzi might be trusted with additional powers, they could one day be wielded by a leader with a shakier attachment to democracy.

Polls conducted before a ban on publication took effect, two weeks before the end of the campaign, showed the No camp ahead by almost 4 percentage points. But they also showed that between 40% and 60% of voters were still undecided or planning to abstain. And they did not reflect the impact of an issue that surfaced fully only in the last days of the campaign: the fear that a No vote could unleash a devastating financial chain reaction.


That risk centres on trouble at Italy’s third-biggest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena. The government is hoping investors will recapitalise it, but they are reluctant to commit their money unless the vote comes out Yes. Were the bank to collapse it could ignite a full-blown banking crisis. Under new EU rules, holders of failing banks’ bonds would have to absorb some of the losses. And there are a lot of them in Italy: households own about €170bn worth of bank bonds, or 49% of the total. A financial crisis would rapidly increase the borrowing costs of a country whose debt comes to 133% of GDP. The situation could look alarmingly reminiscent of 2011, when Italy’s soaring bond yields threatened to blow up the euro.

Another worry is that Mr Renzi’s defeat would open the door to government by the maverick Five Star Movement (M5S), a populist group which, though less radical than France’s National Front or Spain’s Podemos, is woefully unprepared to govern. The M5S is close behind Mr Renzi’s Democratic Party in the polls. But the fall of an Italian government does not lead automatically to a general election. It hands the initiative to the president, who generally tries to avoid calling an election. The incumbent, Sergio Mattarella, could appoint a caretaker prime minister at the head of either a cross-party government or one made up of technocrats. Mr Renzi has ruled out staying in office, but some think it is possible he might be persuaded.

That, however, points to a third anxiety underlying the markets’ nervousness: that a No vote would prolong Italy’s political and economic stagnation. Any new government would immediately have to revise the electoral law, which currently applies only to the lower chamber, not the Senate. That could take a year. In the meantime structural reforms would be put off while Italy’s lawmakers haggle over voting systems. Such government inertia is nothing new in Italy. But the country may no longer be able to afford it.