介绍： The king and them: Holding their breath
A country holds its breath
From The Economist 20161015

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Hoping against hope
BHUMIBOL ADULYADEJ, the 88-year-old king of Thailand, has been in poor health for so long that each fresh bout of illness seems scarcely newsworthy. But this week the palace an...

介绍： The king and them: Holding their breath
A country holds its breath
From The Economist 20161015

Audio:

0:00



Hoping against hope
BHUMIBOL ADULYADEJ, the 88-year-old king of Thailand, has been in poor health for so long that each fresh bout of illness seems scarcely newsworthy. But this week the palace announced that his health was “not stable”, instead of its usual practice of waiting for him to recover from whatever ailment had been troubling him before releasing any information about it. On October 12th the Bangkok stock exchange dropped by 7%, on rumours that his 70-year reign is coming to an end, whether by abdication, death or incapacity (which would allow the crown prince to be declared regent).

The jitters come just as the junta that has run the country since 2014 was beginning to get comfortable. Two months ago it engineered the approval of an authoritarian constitution through a flawed referendum. In theory, that started a countdown to fresh elections, presently scheduled for late 2017. But the death of the king, if it comes soon, would provide the generals with the perfect excuse to delay a new election. Indeed, the army’s desire to secure an orderly royal handover seems to have been one of the reasons it took power in the first place.

In the meantime, the junta’s toadies have continued to tinker with the text of the constitution, even after the voters signed off on it. One change concerns a proposal—lazily added as an additional question to the referendum ballot—to give senators selected by the junta a say in who becomes prime minister. The new text, finalised on October 11th, makes it much more likely that Thailand’s next prime minister will be unelected.

Prayuth Chan-ocha, the junta leader, says he will probably not be the new prime minister. But that is getting harder to believe. Some loyalists serving in Mr Prayuth’s present government plan to start a political party which will lobby to keep him in office (the new constitution’s election rules will give such upstart outfits oomph). The junta anyway says it will retain authority throughout any period of post-election coalition-making, which in theory means it could install any prime minister it desires.


The junta is also tidying up loose ends, and putting opponents in their place. Last month a junta-appointed committee concluded that Yingluck Shinawatra, the prime minister whom the generals ousted in 2014, should be fined around $1 billion for enacting a costly rice-subsidy scheme while in office. (That dismayed some of her enemies, who say the fine is far too low.) The ruling was issued even though Ms Yingluck is still undergoing trial for alleged negligence in connection to the rice scheme, at a risk of ten years in jail.

Many others are also being put in their place. In early October immigration authorities denied entry to Joshua Wong, the teenage leader of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy “Umbrella Movement”, who had been invited to address students in Bangkok. In recent weeks the government has threatened to arrest authors of an Amnesty International report which details allegations of torture by the military, and launched a sedition case against a well-known human-rights lawyer.

Meanwhile the government has been deflecting claims of corruption within its own ranks. It has had to defend the deputy prime minister’s decision to charter a jumbo jet to whizz 40 or so people to an international summit in Hawaii (the total bill came to $588,000, including $17,000 for catering). When journalists noted that a construction company associated with Mr Prayuth’s nephew had won several sizeable army contracts, officials warned that they would scour social media to identify people who accused the prime minister of wrongdoing.

The junta is not thought to be held in great esteem by voters; such incidents further dent its standing. Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn is even more unpopular. The army’s machinations should ensure that the succession, whenever it comes, passes without great drama, at least in the short term. But inept generals ruling in the name of a little-loved king is hardly a formula for stability.


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