介绍： Tech Has Never Caused a Job Apocalypse. Don't Bet on It Now.
The AI doomers claim this time is different. AI is happening faster and does far more than past technological revolutions. It could one day exceed human intelligence.
If such a revolution were upon us, we should see some sign of it. We don't, at lea...

介绍： Tech Has Never Caused a Job Apocalypse. Don't Bet on It Now.
The AI doomers claim this time is different. AI is happening faster and does far more than past technological revolutions. It could one day exceed human intelligence.
If such a revolution were upon us, we should see some sign of it. We don't, at least not yet.
The number of computer programmers, who assist developers in ensuring code runs properly, was down slightly in the last year, in line with a secular decline in place for decades. Neither trend shifted much after ChatGPT's arrival in late 2022.
Perhaps the advanced AI tools only now coming to market will change behavior in a way their predecessors didn't. The doomsday scenario envisions businesses ditching legacy systems and consumers turning over many of their tasks to AI "agents" almost overnight.
In reality, businesses are risk-averse and consumers creatures of habit. Radiologists were supposed to lose their jobs to offshoring, and then to AI. They didn't, because patients and providers like having humans around to explain their medical images. Since Google Translate launched in 2006, the number of human translator and interpreter employees in the U.S. has risen 73%.
Assume, though, that AI does destroy more jobs than it creates. Could the spillovers sink the entire economy? Almost certainly not. The money employers or consumers save as AI eliminates jobs doesn't disappear; it gets spent on something else. This is why a sector can be in recession while the overall economy grows.
生词好句
job apocalypse 就业末日
apocalypse：本义是《圣经》里的启示录，世界末日的那场终极大毁灭；引申为灾难性的、毁灭性的崩塌。
climate apocalypse 气候崩溃
economic apocalypse 经济大崩盘
bet on something 押注于某事；笃定某件事会发生
You can bet on it—she'll be late again.你放心吧——她又会迟到。
Many investors are betting on AI to transform the tech industry.很多投资者押注 AI 会彻底改变科技行业。
doomer 英 [ˈduːmə] 美 [ˈduːmər] n. 末日论者；悲观派
doom n. 厄运、毁灭
critics n. 批评人士
skeptics n. 怀疑论者
be upon us 降临到我们身上（暗示重大事件或者变化已发生或即将发生）
The year-end deadline is upon us.年底的截止时间已近在眼前。
A great change was upon the country.一场巨变正降临在这个国家。
secular decline 长期下滑趋势
secular adj.（本文）长期的；非宗教的、世俗的
There has been a secular decline in the readership of traditional print media.传统纸质媒体的阅读量长期下滑。
predecessor 英 [ˈpriːdəsesə] 美 [ˈpredəsesər] n. 前任；前辈；先前的事物
a car and its predecessors 一款车和它之前的车型
doomsday 英 [ˈduːmzdeɪ] 美 [ˈduːmzdeɪ] n. 末日；大灾难
envision 英 [ɪnˈvɪʒən] 美 [ɪnˈvɪʒən] v. 设想；构想；预见
She envisions a future where work and life are more balanced. 她设想一个工作与家庭更平衡的未来。
ditch 英 [dɪtʃ] 美 [dɪtʃ] v. 丢弃；甩掉；不再使用 (比abandon更口语、随意一些)
ditch an old phone 换掉旧手机
ditch a bad habit 改掉坏习惯
risk-averse 英 [rɪsk əˈvɜːs] 美 [rɪsk əˈvɜːrs] adj. 厌恶风险的；不愿意轻易冒险的
People are often risk-averse when changing jobs.人们在换工作时通常不愿冒风险。
spillover 英 [ˈspɪləʊvə] 美 [ˈspɪloʊvər] n.（本文）溢出效应；从原本范围溢出的、影响到其他部分的东西
spill over 溢出来、漫出来
Water spilled over the cup. 水从杯子里溢出来了。
商业中的"溢出效应"指某个行业、公司或政策的变化，带来的对其他行业、其他人、其他地区的间接影响。