介绍： Brexit and politics: Election fever
Why a new election is unlikely
From The Economist 20161112

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EVER since she became prime minister on July 13th, Theresa May has faced calls to hold an early general election. Some have pointed to the simple fact that she is an unelected prime minister, as ...

介绍： Brexit and politics: Election fever
Why a new election is unlikely
From The Economist 20161112

Audio:

0:00




EVER since she became prime minister on July 13th, Theresa May has faced calls to hold an early general election. Some have pointed to the simple fact that she is an unelected prime minister, as Gordon Brown was in 2007. Others have focused on her Tory government’s tiny working majority in Parliament, down after the resignation on November 4th of Stephen Phillips to only 14 seats, and to opinion polls suggesting that she could increase it substantially. After the High Court ruling on November 3rd that Parliament must decide whether to invoke the Article 50 procedure that would initiate Britain’s exit from the European Union, a new argument has come to the fore: that calling an election would be a good way to defeat all those diehards who are still trying to delay or obstruct Brexit.

One obstacle is the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which specifies that the next election will be held on May 7th 2020. The act allows for an earlier election to be called, but makes it harder than in the past by requiring either the support of two-thirds of MPs or a (somewhat artificial) vote of no confidence in the government. If neither can be engineered, it would be possible simply to repeal the act, but that would take time.


Most analysts believe that Mrs May could find a way to hold an early election if she chose to, via one of these routes. Yet she has stuck to the line that there is no case for one, insisting that her main task is to implement the mandate for Brexit given by the June 23rd referendum. She wants to avoid the fate of Mr Brown, who lost credibility by dithering over whether to go to the country. And although the polls are in her favour, any election is unpredictable (ask Hillary Clinton). Even so, Mrs May’s latest language has shifted towards the slightly less firm message that there is no requirement for an election before 2020.

The Brexit process will affect the argument over an early election in another way. Mrs May’s declared aim is still to invoke Article 50 by the end of March. Catherine Haddon of the Institute for Government, a think-tank, notes that the tight two-year timetable this sets for negotiating Brexit would make it bizarre to call an election after the article has been invoked and negotiations have formally begun. So after March, at least, speculation about an early poll should die down.

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