介绍： El Niño Is the Next Risk Hanging Over the Global Economy
The expected return of the El Niño weather pattern, supercharged by climate change, is shaping up to be the next test for a global economy already strained by the fallout from the Iran war. 
El Niño occurs every few years when trade winds of the tropica...

介绍： El Niño Is the Next Risk Hanging Over the Global Economy
The expected return of the El Niño weather pattern, supercharged by climate change, is shaping up to be the next test for a global economy already strained by the fallout from the Iran war. 
El Niño occurs every few years when trade winds of the tropical Pacific weaken and the ocean warms up. It typically lasts up to a year, peaking around year-end, and tends to bring dryness and heat to much of Asia and wet weather to various places, including the Gulf Coast. 
Forecasters in the U.S. and elsewhere say El Niño is highly likely to form this year. Very hot ocean temperatures mean it has the potential to be a severe one, but it’s too early to say.
In energy, the uncertainty is compounding the big unknown of when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, said BNP Paribas commodities strategist Jason Ying. He’s watching for extra demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia to power air conditioners as temperatures rise. That could leave Europe short in the coming months. 
“LNG cargoes might get diverted over to Asia instead of European gas storage, and that means we start at a lower base for winter,”he said.
India is already enduring a brutal heat wave, and the forecast points to below-average rainfall in the coming monsoon. El Niño years are typically hotter, and energy consumption rises as people crank the AC. Drought also saps hydropower output, driving natural-gas and coal burning, something that happened in China during the last El Niño.